What geopolitical stakes behind Donald Trump’s return?

Donald Trump’s second term should consolidate the “America First” vision, this time adapted to the challenges of the multipolarity of the world. Strategic rivalry with China will remain at the centre of the agenda, while the approach to Europe and the Middle East could focus on reduced commitments, except in the case of vital American interests. The goal will be to maintain economic and technological hegemony while redistributing the security burden on traditional allies.
In this article, we will analyze the major issues that could redefine the world order under a second term of Donald Trump, especially their impacts on Europe, China, the Middle East, the South China Sea, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Europe: between pressure and autonomy

Trump has historically criticized European low military spending, and a second term could tighten that position. European countries, notably Germany and Italy, will have to deal with internal differences in the response. In addition, the US priority given to the Indo-Pacific could marginalize Europe in global strategic decisions, including with initiatives such as the AUKUS. Faced with this situation, the European Union will have to accelerate its strategic autonomy projects, such as the strengthening of the European Defence Fund, to limit its dependence on Washington.

China: opportunities and threats

China could benefit from Trump’s focus on bilateral economic agreements, like the 2019 one. Nevertheless, technological decoupling, the isolation of Chinese companies in U.S. markets, and the rise of alliances in the Indo-Pacific (AUKUS, Quad) will pose major obstacles to Beijing. China will also need to monitor the possible revision of U.S. commitments in Europe, which could free up additional resources to counter its influence in Asia. This dynamic will force Beijing to intensify its multilateral diplomacy, especially with the global South, to compensate for economic and strategic losses.

Ukraine: ambiguous diplomacy

Trump has hinted that he could push towards a swift compromise in Ukraine, putting pressure on Kiev to accept some concessions. His relationship with Moscow could facilitate direct dialogue with Vladimir Putin, especially in the context of a Russia economically weakened by Western sanctions. However, this strategy carries  risks: it could weaken the support of European allies for Ukraine and leave a strategic vacuum if security guarantees are not assured. The challenge will be to balance pragmatic diplomacy with internal NATO tension management.

South China Sea: rise in confrontations

The South China Sea will remain a key theatre of the Sino-American rivalry. Trump could strengthen freedom of navigation operations and increase arms sales to partners like Taiwan and the Philippines. These initiatives, while affirming the American presence, risk causing local clashes, especially with the Chinese coastguard. Riparian nations, such as Vietnam and Malaysia, will be under pressure to choose between strategic alignment and preservation of their sovereignty. This critical zone for world trade will continue to be a focal point for geopolitical tensions.